At least three polls or pre-election surveys conducted ahead of the May 10 Karnataka assembly election of 2023 predicted that the Congress would retake power in the state, while a poll conducted by Zed News-Matrize predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would win the most seats.
The BJP may suffer a significant loss, while the Janata Dal's (Secular) performance may fall far short of expectations, according to the ABP-CVoter opinion poll, which also projected that the Congress is likely to form the government in Karnataka.
Key findings from recent surveys on the 2023 Karnataka assembly election
1. Out of Karnataka's 224 assembly seats, the ABP News-CVoter poll predicts that the Congress would win between 107 and 119 of them. The JD(S) can win 23 to 35 seats, while the BJP is predicted to win between 74 and 86 seats.
2. According to the poll, the Congress may have a 5% vote share advantage over the BJP, which is now in power. In the end, the Congress could win 40% of the vote, compared to the BJP's 35%. 17% of the votes might go to the JD(S).
Share of seats (224 total seats)
74 to 86 seats for BJP
107 to 119 seats in the Congress
23 to 35 seats for JD(S)
0 to 5 seats for others
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BJP – 35%
JD(S) – 17%
8% of others
3. According to another India Today-CVoter assessment, the incumbent BJP would likely lose the Karnataka assembly election. The poll predicts that the BJP would only win 74–86 seats, which is a decrease of 24 from the number of seats the party won in 2018.
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4. Siddaramaiah, a Congress politician, is the candidate with 42% of the support for the position of chief minister, followed by Basavraj Bommai, a BJP candidate, with 31%.
Zed News-Matrize, No. 5 According to a poll conducted in Karnataka and published on Monday, the BJP, which is now in power, would end up being the single-largest party, followed by the Congress and the JD(S) in the assembly elections.
JD (S): 26-36
Other: 1 to 3
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6. The Zed News-Matrize also indicated that Rahul Gandhi's “Bharat Jodo Yatra” would do very little to help the Congress, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi might be the gamechanger in the 2023 Karnataka assembly Elections.
7. According to Zed News, their opinion survey conducted between 29 and 30 March comprised 1.80 lakh men and 1.12 lakh women from both rural and urban regions, making it the opinion poll with the highest sample size for the Karnataka assembly elections to date.
8. In the meanwhile, the second and final pre-election surveys by Jan Ki Baat and Kannada news outlet Suvarna News 24×7 both indicated that the BJP will be the single-largest party in the May 10 election. However, according to the pre-poll, Congress had a marginally higher vote share than BJP.
9. According to a pre-election study by the Kannada publication Eedina, with 32-140 seats, the Congress looks to be heading for a clear and comfortable majority. A vote share of 33% and 57–65 seats are expected to go to the BJP.
10. BJP representative BL Santhosh referred to the survey as “cooked up” in a tweet, writing, “It's really astonishing that he (Yogendra Yadav) finds time amidst his padayatras and agitations to cook up surveys to please his masters…!!!”.